I don’t think Carl Edwards will win the Daytona 500.

Sure, he’s a fantastic driver.  Absolutely the Roush Team has the fastest car — Biffle at the two spot indicates that.

But Carl doesn’t win races.  He’s a consistent point gatherer not a risk taker.

Look at last year’s numbers.  He finished the season runner up for the Sprint Cup behind Tony Stewart.  Astoundingly he achieved this while winning only one race (Vegas).  He finish in the top five 19 times and top ten 26 times.  That meant he was in the top five 52 percent of the time.

Tony Stewart, in contrast, won five races last year.  He finished top five 9 times and top ten 19 times.  He was top five 25 percent of the time, about half that of Edwards.  But when he was top five, he won the race more than half the time.

The numbers show that Edwards goes for consistency and gathers points.  He doesn’t go all or none to win races.  This maybe the strategy of his crew chief Bob Osborne.  Whatever the case Carl Edwards is a great pick for season points leader but not for winning individual races.

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